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  4. 1.03 Threat, risk and harm: scoring of OCGs (Organised Crime Groups)

1.03 Threat, risk and harm: scoring of OCGs (Organised Crime Groups)

Academic team: Dr Paul Mulholland
Policing partners: National Crime Agency
Status: Complete 

Police officer at march

The aim of this project is to compare existing methods for assessing the risk posed by an Organised Crime Group (OCG) and formulating recommendations for how OCG risk assessment could be carried out. A literature review of OCG risk assessment methods identified a number of challenges including: dealing with unknown information, what to classify as OCGs, assessing atypical OCGs, determining validity and assessing fast changing OCGs.

The research has focussed on the comparison of MoRiLE (Management of Risk in Law Enforcement) and OCGM (Organised Crime Group Mapping). MoRiLE describes OCGs according to a number of thematic factors, whereas OCGM scores OCGs according to a series of attributes. A data analysis study has been carried out on OCG risk assessments conducted using both MoRiLE and OCGM.  A further study will provide a controlled and detailed comparison of the use of OCGM and MoRiLE by analysts. 


Title Outputs type Lead academic Year To note
Organised crime group mapping project Progress report Mulholland, P 2018 Available on request
A comparison of attribute-focused and harm-focused methods for assessing the risk of organised crime groups: Are they in agreement? Journal paper Mulholland, P 2020 Available on request



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