Earth System Modelling

The Earth system modelling group applies a range of modelling tools to address interdisciplinary problems. Using these tools we explore the impacts of climate change on the Earth system and human society in the past, present and future.

The group focuses on three main areas of application: Integrated assessment of climate and socio-economic change; Paleoclimate variability, dynamics and ecosystem interactions; and Ice-sheet modelling.

We develop and apply intermediate complexity Earth system models, notably GENIE and PLASIM. We have contributed to the three most recent Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, AR5 and AR6) and provided analysis for the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook.

A particular focus is the combination of dynamic simulation modelling with statistical modelling. Combining the two we address questions that are beyond the computational reach of direct simulation approaches, notably cutting-edge cross-disciplinary problems, working with modellers, social scientists, humanities researchers and policy makers in the fields of climate policy, economics, energy, biogeography and anthropology.

We have a wide range of active collaborations both within the School and the Open University, and also nationally and internationally.

Academic Staff

Postgraduate Research Students

Phil Holden

Earth System Modelling Research Group Point of Contact